USDA's main headquarters in Washington, DC (FCR Photo)
US–EU Trade Deal Sets Fifteen Percent Tariff
TURNBERRY, SCOTLAND – The United States and European Union have reached a framework trade agreement that avoids a major tariff escalation and opens new opportunities for U.S. agricultural exports. Under the deal announced Sunday, most EU goods entering the U.S. will now face a 15% baseline tariff—avoiding the 30% level previously proposed by the White House. In return, both sides agreed to eliminate tariffs entirely on key strategic products.
Among those zero-tariff items are selected agricultural products, giving U.S. exporters new access to the European market for beef, pork, grains, and processed foods. According to Reuters, additional zero-tariff categories include aircraft parts, critical minerals, generic pharmaceuticals, and semiconductor equipment.
Although steep tariffs on European steel and aluminum remain in place for now, those are expected to be addressed in a follow-up quota-based system. The EU also committed to purchasing $750 billion in U.S. energy over three years, along with $600 billion in industrial investment.
The agreement mirrors a similar 2024 deal between the U.S. and Japan and must still be ratified by the European Parliament and individual EU nations before taking effect.
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Cattle On Feed Hits Eight-Year Low In July Report
NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. cattle on feed numbers dropped below expectations in USDA’s July report. As of July 1, feedlots with 1,000 or more head held 11.1 million cattle and calves, a 2 percent decline from last year and the smallest July total since 2017. That figure came in even lower than the most conservative pre-report trade estimates.
Steer inventory rose 1 percent to 6.88 million head, representing 62 percent of the total. Meanwhile, the number of heifers declined 5 percent to 4.24 million head. According to Oklahoma State University extension livestock marketing specialist Derrell Peel, the ratio of heifers in feedlots remains above the long-term average, suggesting that herd rebuilding is progressing slowly, if at all.
June placements totaled 1.44 million head, 8 percent lower than a year ago and the lowest June total since 2009. Analysts had expected a more modest drop. Marketings were also soft at 1.71 million head, down 4 percent from a year earlier and marking the lowest June level since USDA began tracking the data in 1996.
The data signals tightening feeder supplies, which could support stronger cattle prices heading into the fall.
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USDA: Cattle Inventory and Calf Crop Both Fall
NASHVILLE, TN – The USDA’s July Cattle Inventory report shows the nation’s cattle herd is still shrinking. As of July 1, 2025, there were 94.2 million head of cattle and calves in the U.S.—down 1 percent from July 1, 2023. That total includes 38.1 million cows and heifers that have calved, also 1 percent lower. Beef cows dropped to 28.7 million head, while milk cows increased slightly to 9.45 million.
Heifers weighing 500 pounds or more totaled 14.6 million head, down 2 percent from two years ago. The report shows 3.7 million beef replacement heifers, a 3 percent decline, and 3.5 million milk replacements, unchanged from 2023. Steers over 500 pounds totaled 13.8 million head, down 1 percent, while calves under 500 pounds fell 2 percent to 25.8 million.
Cattle on feed across all U.S. feedlots stood at 13.0 million head, 1 percent below the 2023 figure. The 2025 calf crop is expected to total 33.1 million head, also down 1 percent. Calves born in the first half of the year are estimated at 24.3 million.
The USDA’s figures landed near the lower end of pre-report trade estimates, which had projected modest declines. The data suggests continued tightening of cattle supplies into 2026.
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Cold Storage Stocks Show Mixed Trends in June
NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s Cold Storage report for June 2025 showed varied movements across major food categories.
Cheese inventories in refrigerated warehouses were up slightly from May but down compared to June 2024. Butter stocks declined 3 percent from the previous month and 6 percent year-over-year.
Total frozen poultry supplies rose 4 percent month-over-month but fell 4 percent from a year earlier. Chicken stocks were up 1 percent from May and 3 percent from last June. Turkey stocks rose 8 percent from May but were 16 percent below last year.
Red meat stocks fell 4 percent from May and 7 percent year-over-year. Beef in freezers dropped 3 percent for the month and 1 percent from last June. Pork stocks declined 6 percent monthly and 11 percent annually, with pork bellies down 17 percent month-over-month and 28 percent year-over-year.
