Record Corn Crop Headlines August WASDE Report
NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report delivered a shock to grain markets Tuesday, projecting a record U.S. corn crop of 16.7 billion bushels for 2025. That’s roughly 1 billion bushels more than last month’s forecast and well above trade expectations. USDA pegged corn yield at 188.8 bushels per acre — the highest on record — with ending stocks expected at 2.1 billion bushels, the largest since 2018/19. Corn usage was also raised, with exports projected at 2.9 billion bushels. The big supply increase sent corn futures to five-year lows.
Soybean production was trimmed by 43 million bushels to 4.3 billion, as reduced harvested area outweighed strong yields of 53.6 bushels per acre. USDA cut soybean exports by 40 million bushels, lowering ending stocks to 290 million. That figure came in under many analyst estimates, lending modest support to soybean markets.
For wheat, USDA made only slight changes to production, but raised exports by 25 million bushels on stronger early demand. Ending stocks were lowered to 869 million bushels, tightening the domestic supply picture.
Cotton faces more challenging conditions. USDA lowered U.S. production to 13.2 million bales on an average yield of 862 lb/acre. Citing an 8 percent drop in planted area, 15 percent decline in harvested acres, and rising abandonment (now 21 percent compared to 14 percent), the National Ag Statistics Service projects a season-average price of 64¢ per pound amid tighter supplies.
Internationally, USDA’s projections reflected continued strong global competition, especially from the Black Sea region, but U.S. wheat demand remains firm in both traditional and opportunistic markets.
The report’s surprise was the sheer size of the corn crop, which exceeded even the most optimistic trade guesses. While soybeans and wheat saw adjustments that may support prices, the corn outlook is decidedly bearish unless weather or export demand changes the balance.
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USDA LRP Usage Surges as Cattle Price Insurance
LUBBOCK, TX – Ranchers nationwide—especially in the South—are increasingly tapping the USDA’s Livestock Risk Protection (LRP) Program to guard against price volatility. Usage jumped from just 71,000 head insured in 2017 to 7.5 million head by July 2025. In 2024 alone, 6.2 million head were covered, up from 4.97 million in 2023—growth spurred in part by USDA updates to premium costs and deferred payment options.
The Steer Weight 2 category remains the most insured, totaling 42% of 2025 transactions. Fed Cattle Steers & Heifers and Heifer Weight 2 follow at 20% and 17%. Notably, the Unborn category has seen outsized growth this year—now accounting for 11% of all insured head, compared to a historical average of 6%.
In the Southern region, participation remains strong: Texas and Oklahoma accounted for 77% of insured head in 2025, though that’s down from 88% in 2024, signaling wider state adoption. LRP provides producers with a price floor, helping protect profitability amid narrow margins and high input costs.
To explore coverage options, livestock producers can visit USDA’s LRP Fact Sheet or consult approved agents listed on the USDA website.
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U.S. Farm Tractor & Combine Sales Continue Year-Over-Year Decline in July
LUBBOCK, TX – According to the latest USDA United States Ag Tractor & Combine Report from AEM, equipment retail sales remain soft through July 2025. Two-wheel-drive (2WD) farm tractor sales dropped 4.1%, with 17,366 units sold in July versus 18,104 units in July 2024. Year-to-date, sales fell nearly 9.4% to 118,924 units, down from 131,204.
Sales of 100+ horsepower 2WD tractors plunged 29.3% year-over-year, while sub-40 HP units declined 1.7% and mid-range (40–100 HP) tractors were nearly flat with a modest 0.8% gain.
Four-wheel-drive (4WD) tractor sales were even weaker—down 40.2% in July and 38.8% year-to-date, with just 248 units sold. Combine sales followed the downward trend, falling a steep 43.7% in July and 43.4% year-to-date.
These declines take place amid structural pressure on farming margins, elevated interest rates, and uncertainty over input costs—factors that continue to curb demand for major capital investments. Despite optimism for 2025 as a turning point earlier this year, equipment volumes remain far off pre-COVID boom levels.
AEM members and farm equipment dealers are watching closely for improving farm cash flow and stabilizing commodity markets, which will be key drivers for renewed equipment demand heading into 2026.
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Small-Town Business Optimism Ticks Higher Despite Hiring Hurdles
NASHVILLE, TN – The National Federation of Independent Business says its Small Business Optimism Index rose 1.7 points in July to 100.3 — slightly above the long-term average. Rural and small-town entrepreneurs were among those reporting better business conditions and more willingness to expand, thanks in part to Congress making the 20% Small Business Deduction permanent.
The percentage of owners who see now as a good time to grow climbed to 16%, up five points from June. Still, the Uncertainty Index jumped eight points, as many await clarity on trade policy and other issues. Labor quality once again ranked as the top concern, cited by 21% of owners — a growing challenge for Main Street employers from farm supply stores to local manufacturers.
Other findings show:
13% rated their business health as “excellent” and 52% as “good.”
11% cited poor sales as their top problem — the highest since early 2021.
22% plan capital outlays in the next six months, with many focusing on equipment, vehicles, and facility upgrades.
A third of owners reported job openings they couldn’t fill, often due to few or no qualified applicants.
NFIB says making the Small Business Deduction permanent has boosted confidence, but labor shortages, interest costs, and inflation pressures remain on the minds of rural business owners.
