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USDA Projects Record Corn Crop, Higher Wheat Exports
WASHINGTON, DC – USDA’s September Crop Production and WASDE reports point to record-setting corn output, strong soybean yields, slightly smaller cotton supplies, and tighter wheat ending stocks for 2025/26.
Corn production is forecast at a record 16.8 billion bushels, up 13% from last year, with yields pegged at 186.7 bushels per acre. Harvested acres are estimated at 90.0 million, the largest since 1933. USDA trimmed corn yields by 2.1 bushels from August but increased acreage enough to lift output. Ending stocks are forecast at 2.1 billion bushels, down slightly from last month, with exports projected at a record 3.0 billion bushels.
Soybean production is forecast at 4.30 billion bushels, down 2% from 2024, though yields remain strong at 53.5 bushels per acre, a record if realized. Harvested acreage is estimated at 80.3 million, down 7% year-over-year. USDA lowered exports by 20 million bushels, citing stronger competition from Russia, Canada, and Argentina. Ending stocks are raised to 300 million bushels.
Wheat supplies were unchanged, but exports were raised 25 million bushels to 900 million on stronger sales of Hard Red Winter wheat. Ending stocks are now pegged at 844 million bushels, 25 million below last month, and slightly under last year. The season-average price forecast dropped 20 cents to $5.10 per bushel.
Cotton output is forecast at 13.2 million bales, down 8% from last year, with yields averaging 861 pounds per acre. Upland production is seen at 12.9 million bales, while Pima cotton is forecast at 309,000 bales. Ending stocks are steady at 3.6 million bales, leaving the stocks-to-use ratio at just over 26%. The season-average price remains 64 cents per pound.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face record corn supplies and heavy export demand, but soybean exports are slipping as global rivals expand sales. Wheat growers gain from stronger exports, while cotton producers contend with smaller crops but steady prices. Market focus will remain on trade flows and harvest results in the weeks ahead.
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Corn Sales Hit Record While Soybeans Lag Sharply
WASHINGTON, DC – USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service reports historic contrasts in new crop export sales heading into the 2025/26 marketing year. Outstanding corn sales as of August 28 totaled 21.17 million metric tons, up 86% from a year ago and nearly double the three-year average. This marks the highest volume of new crop corn sales ever recorded before the marketing year begins. Mexico leads with 33% of purchases, followed by Japan at 12%, Colombia at 8%, and South Korea at 5%. Notably, China — once a top U.S. buyer — has been absent from the corn market since 2021/22.
Soybeans tell the opposite story. Outstanding new crop sales stand at just 8 million metric tons, down 32% from last year and 50% below the three-year average — the weakest start since 2019. Mexico again leads as the top buyer with 24% of sales. China, the largest soybean customer in 2024/25, has not booked any purchases for 2025/26.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Corn exporters enter the new season with record sales and strong demand from key partners, while soybeans face their weakest start in six years, underscoring the market risk of China’s absence.
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Bigger U.S. Sorghum Crop Faces Major Trade Risks
LUBBOCK, TX – The U.S. sorghum crop is forecast at 9.94 million metric tons for 2025/26, up nearly 14% from last year, according to Texas A&M AgriLife Extension Service. Despite strong production, domestic demand is projected to fall by almost 25%, leaving the market heavily dependent on exports. China is the key buyer, with USDA expecting imports of nearly 8 MMT and U.S. shipments potentially doubling to 5.72 MMT this year. Still, trade tensions remain a hurdle, as China imposed duties and suspended firms earlier in 2025, slashing U.S. shipments by more than 95% in the first half of the year.
Other buyers like Mexico, Spain, and Vietnam are steady or emerging, but none rival China’s scale. Australia and Argentina have stepped in to fill part of the void, with some sorghum already cleared for baijiu, a traditional Chinese liquor. USDA projects a season-average farm price near $3.70 per bushel, with sorghum trading at a discount to corn. Analysts say Gulf basis levels will stay fragile until Chinese demand resumes.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Sorghum farmers face strong supply but uncertain access to their largest market. Hedging against corn futures and monitoring export flows will be critical, with geopolitics driving prices as much as yields.
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Study Shows Crop Insurance Greatly Reduces Revenue Risk
LUBBOCK, TX – New research from North Dakota State University highlights the role of crop insurance in shielding farmers from revenue losses between 2015 and 2023. Led by Senior Research Economist Francis Tsiboe, the study found that combining basic insurance products like Revenue Protection (RP) and Yield Protection (YP) with supplemental policies such as the Supplemental Coverage Option (SCO) and Enhanced Coverage Option (ECO) boosted revenue stability significantly. Farmers using these combined programs had a 27.9% higher chance of recovering losses compared to those farming without insurance. Revenue variability dropped by nearly half, while downside risk fell by more than 80%.
Cotton saw the highest reduction in downside revenue risk at 88%, followed by corn, canola, and wheat. Geographically, states like Arizona, Iowa, and Illinois reported the strongest protections, while regions such as Arkansas and California saw more modest benefits. The study also noted that the strongest protections often came with higher producer costs, though recent legislation in the One Big Beautiful Bill (OBBB) increased premium subsidies for SCO and ECO to 80%, easing the out-of-pocket burden for farmers.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Crop insurance remains a vital tool for managing climate-driven risk. Supplemental policies can dramatically reduce revenue volatility, with expanded subsidies making them more affordable for producers nationwide.
