All Ag, All Day is the nation's only full-time farm radio station with studios in Floydada and Nashville, TN (www.AllAgNews.com)
USDA Grain Stocks Report Surprises Corn and Wheat
NASHVILLE, TN – USDA’s September 1 Grain Stocks report leaned bearish for corn and wheat while soybeans landed close to expectations.
Old-crop corn stocks were reported at 1.532 billion bushels, well above the average trade estimate of 1.337 billion (range 1.26–1.45). The larger-than-expected figure suggests that feed and export use was softer than anticipated, resulting in more grain being stored as the new harvest advances.
Soybean stocks came in at 316 million bushels, only slightly under the average trade guess of 323 million (range 295–360). The figure was largely neutral, showing modestly stronger disappearance during the summer but staying within pre-report expectations.
All wheat stocks totaled 2.12 billion bushels, topping the average trade estimate of 2.043 billion (range 1.954–2.135). Larger-than-expected inventories reflect both strong production and slower early-season demand, adding pressure to an already heavy global wheat outlook.
Market analysts said the bearish surprises in corn and wheat could weigh on futures, while soybeans offered little fresh direction.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Bigger-than-expected corn and wheat stocks are bearish for prices, while soybean figures were neutral. Farmers may face additional price pressure as harvest accelerates.
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Taiwan Purchase Pledge Spurs USDA Agriculture Trade Mission
TAIPEI, Taiwan – Taiwan’s recent pledge to boost U.S. agricultural purchases by 30% over the next four years is driving a new USDA agribusiness trade mission to the island. Led by Under Secretary for Trade and Foreign Agricultural Affairs Luke J. Lindberg, the mission includes 39 agribusinesses, trade groups, and three state agriculture departments aiming to secure new sales and expand market access.
Taiwan is already the eighth-largest market for U.S. farm exports, buying $3.8 billion in 2024 and providing a $3.1 billion U.S. trade surplus. Its high-income consumers favor premium foods, giving U.S. producers opportunities in soybeans, corn, wheat, dairy, beef, fresh fruit, and tree nuts. Taiwan’s advanced economy and recent commitments make it a prime focus for U.S. trade expansion.
The Taiwan trip follows recent USDA missions to Hong Kong, Thailand, Peru, Guatemala, and the Dominican Republic, which are projected to generate $64 million in sales. Future missions are planned for Mexico in November and Japan in October as part of the USDA’s 2025 export promotion strategy.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Taiwan’s pledge to expand imports strengthens export prospects for U.S. row crops, livestock products, and specialty commodities, while USDA’s broader trade push seeks to diversify farm markets globally.
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Low Mississippi River Levels Pressure Grain Barge Movement
NASHVILLE, TN – Low water on the Mississippi River System is once again disrupting harvest logistics, reducing barge capacity at a critical time for U.S. grain exports. Following an unusually dry August in the Ohio River Basin—the driest on record—tributary flow into the lower Mississippi has dropped sharply. Gauges at Cairo, IL, and Memphis, TN, are hovering just above low-water thresholds, prompting restrictions by the U.S. Coast Guard and dredging operations by the Army Corps of Engineers to keep navigation open.
Restrictions now limit tow sizes and draft depths, cutting efficiency for both southbound grain and northbound fertilizer shipments. USDA projects record U.S. corn production this fall at 427 million metric tons, with exports expected to reach 75.6 mmt. Year-to-date sales are running 46 percent above average, with Mexico, Japan, and Colombia leading the way in terms of buyers. By contrast, soybean export sales are down sharply, as China has yet to finalize purchases, although soybean meal exports are expected to reach record levels.
Barge freight rates out of Cairo and Memphis have risen 31 percent over the past month but remain well below the extreme highs of 2022. Analysts note that lessons learned since then, combined with lower soybean export volumes, have tempered rate spikes. Still, strong corn exports and any rebound in soybean demand could add pressure if river conditions deteriorate further.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers face tighter barge capacity and higher freight costs during peak harvest. Strong corn exports may further strain logistics if low water levels persist, although weaker soybean exports are currently tempering rate spikes.
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Copper, Gold, And Silver Markets Shaped By Fundamentals
NASHVILLE, TN – Key industrial and precious metals are being driven by structural factors that extend beyond daily trading shifts, according to ADM Investor Services.
Copper remains closely tied to China’s economic trajectory. While factory surveys indicate modest improvements in production and export orders, deflationary pressures and reduced demand ahead of national holidays underscore the ongoing fragility. Import premiums have softened, suggesting caution among buyers, though long-term demand remains underpinned by China’s role in manufacturing and renewable infrastructure.
Gold remains influenced by political and economic risks. Profit-taking weighed on prices recently, but safe-haven demand is reinforced by fiscal uncertainty in Washington, where budget gridlock raises the risk of a government shutdown. Global geopolitical tensions also support gold’s role as a hedge, with investors seeking stability against inflation and conflict-driven volatility.
Silver fundamentals remain strong despite price pullbacks. The Silver Institute projects a fifth consecutive annual supply deficit in 2025, with global output expected to fall short of demand by 100 million ounces. Industrial consumption tied to solar expansion and renewable energy technology is helping to sustain silver demand, particularly with China’s solar exports rising sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Copper reflects China’s manufacturing health, gold tracks political and global risk, and silver is buoyed by renewable energy demand amid supply shortfalls. Together, these markets highlight the diverse forces shaping industrial inputs and safe-haven assets.
