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Farm Debt At Ag Banks Climbs To Record Highs
NASHVILLE, TN – Farm debt at agricultural banks continued to rise in the second quarter of 2025, driven by tighter margins for crop producers and steady demand for financing, according to the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City. While loan delinquency rates remain low at just 1.3 percent, they ticked slightly higher as farm financial conditions weakened. Agricultural banks—defined as those with at least a quarter of lending tied to farm loans—reported stronger growth than other lenders, with half seeing loan balances increase by more than 5 percent and a quarter posting gains over 10 percent.
Real estate debt at farm-focused banks rose 5 percent year-over-year, while production loans increased nearly 10 percent. By contrast, non-agricultural banks showed flat to declining farm loan balances. Record farm debt levels are being offset by relatively strong earnings at agricultural banks, supported by higher interest margins; however, liquidity has tightened as loan-to-deposit ratios have crept upward.
The Fed notes that conditions remain uneven across the agricultural sector. Livestock producers, particularly cattle operators, are seeing more substantial returns, while crop producers face low commodity prices and high input costs. Government relief payments and firm land values have provided some cushion, but weaker profitability is likely to keep credit demand elevated into 2026.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farm debt is climbing to record levels at ag banks, reflecting pressure on crop producers’ finances even as livestock and land values lend stability to the sector.
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StoneX Cuts Corn Yield Forecast But Lifts Soybeans
NASHVILLE, TN – Commodity brokerage StoneX has adjusted its 2025 crop year outlook, trimming U.S. corn yield expectations while boosting soybean prospects. The firm now projects average corn yields at 185.9 bushels per acre, down from 186.9 bushels per acre last month. Even so, with USDA’s higher acreage base factored in, total corn production is forecast at 16.737 billion bushels, an increase from September’s 16.577 billion.
For soybeans, StoneX raised its yield forecast to 53.9 bushels per acre from 53.2, lifting estimated production to 4.326 billion bushels. The firm’s updates reflect changing field conditions and revisions to USDA acreage data, which continue to influence balance sheets. By comparison, the USDA’s August WASDE projected a national corn yield of 188.8 bushels per acre (bpa) and soybeans at 53.6 bpa, suggesting that StoneX sees slightly tighter corn output but a more optimistic soybean harvest. Analysts note that export demand, especially for soybeans, remains weak, while global weather risks could further influence U.S. crop prospects.
Farm-Level Takeaway: StoneX’s latest revisions indicate modest downside risk in corn yields and stronger soybean output, although demand and weather uncertainties still loom over 2025 markets.
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Rice Outlook Shows Lower Production But Higher Stocks
NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. rice farmers are facing a challenging 2025 season marked by flooding, extreme heat, and drought across the Mississippi Delta, which offset a smoother growing year in California. University of Arkansas Assistant Professor Ryan Loy reports that overall U.S. rice production is projected to decline by approximately 10 million cwt from 2024, reaching 208.8 million cwt. Acreage remains between 2 and 3 million acres, consistent with long-term rotation cycles, though high input costs and weaker prices continue to weigh on grower decisions.
Despite lower production, beginning stocks have increased sharply, driven by record-high grain yields in 2024. The September WASDE projects long-grain beginning stocks up 93 percent, while medium-grain supplies are expected to fall nearly 28 percent. Farm prices are forecast to decline to $12.00 per cwt for long grain and $12.50 for Southern medium and short grain, representing steep year-over-year drops. Global competition remains fierce, with U.S. rice priced at $585 per ton, compared to offers from India, Pakistan, and Thailand near $360. Global demand softness and India’s resumed exports are adding pressure.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lower U.S. production is partly offset by higher stocks; however, price weakness and international competition create significant headwinds for rice growers.
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U.S. Ag Exports Support More Than One Million Jobs
LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. agricultural exports provide more than trade value—they generate significant employment across farming, processing, marketing, and transportation. In 2023, exports valued at $175.5 billion supported an estimated 1.05 million full-time civilian jobs nationwide, according to the USDA’s Economic Research Service. Using its agricultural trade multiplier, ERS calculates that every $1 billion of U.S. farm and food exports supports approximately 5,997 jobs across both farm and non-farm sectors.
The top 10 export commodities accounted for nearly half of this employment, supporting 503,099 jobs. Soybeans led all categories, supporting 136,012 jobs, followed by corn at 76,504 and beef at 73,482. Pork exports supported 56,777 jobs, while chicken contributed another 27,176. Cotton, wheat, and soybean meal each supported more than 28,000 jobs combined, while almonds and distillers’ dried grains rounded out the top 10. Together, soybean and corn exports alone accounted for over 212,000 jobs, underscoring their central role in U.S. agricultural trade and rural employment.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Agricultural exports continue to be a major driver of rural jobs, with soybeans, corn, and livestock products leading the way in supporting over a million U.S. workers.
