Cotton Industry Still Puzzled By USDA’s Increasing Estimates

cotton
cotton

(File Photo/Deon Zumwalt)

LUBBOCK, TX – Despite a cotton-growing trainwreck in the Texas High Plains in 2022, USDA remains optimistic about last year’s domestic crop size.

In their latest supply and demand estimates report (WASDE), the government found higher production than expected a month ago – an additional 211,000 bales – on better yields in the Delta and Southeast.

Overall, USDA expects a 14.2 million bale crop.

However, in West Texas, industry experts are shaking their heads. Before the report, Mark Brown, Director of Field Services with Plains Cotton Growers (PCG), said the crop is harvested, and ginning is all but finished – except for a couple of gins in Gaines County. Last season, the Lubbock region produced a 4.5 million bale crop, about 800,000 more than average, but this year is struggling to get to 1.5 million bales.

Though classing through USDA’s Agricultural Marketing Service (AMS) is all but wrapped up in South Texas, Arkansas, and Louisiana, both Georgia and Tennessee may still find the additional 2.2 million bales in the next month.

USDA is projecting a reduction in mill use and world demand, with a season-average farm price of 85¢ per pound.

(SOURCE: All Ag News)

Classing Office      12/31/22    12/31/21   Total 2021  to 21total  22 vs.21  USDA 22 Estimate
Abilene               371,128     800,441   (1,518,648)     52.7%    -75.6%  
Corpus Christi      1,227,054   1,731,468   (1,747,036)     99.1%    -29.8%
Dumas               1,287,181     994,348   (1,001,880)     99.2%    +28.5%
Florence            1,511,613   1,191,067   (1,317,171)     90.7%    +14.8%
Lamesa                170,297   1,019,404   (1,682,392)     60.6%    -89.9%
Lubbock             1,285,224   2,190,443   (3,433,786)     63.8%    -62.6%
Macon               2,742,909   1,998,405   (2,708,864)     73.8%    +01.3%
Memphis             2,775,341   2,178,639   (2,656,989)     82.0%    +04.5%
Rayville              414,843     267,567     (280,360)     95.4%    +48.0%
Visalia               219,768     276,764     (425,385)     65.1%    -48.3%
United States      12,005,358  12,648,546  (16,772,511)     75.4%    -28.4%     14,200,000  -15.5%  
2,194,642 bales needed to reach estimate

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