All Ag, All Day is the nation's only full-time farm radio station with studios in Floydada and Nashville, TN (www.AllAgNews.com)
Corn Exports Surge While Soybeans Slow And Wheat Gains
WASHINGTON, DC – USDA’s weekly export inspections report for the week ending September 18 showed mixed grain movement. Total exports reached 2.70 million metric tons, down from 3.13 million last week but above the 2.45 million reported a year earlier. Corn led the pace at 1.33 million tons (52.3 million bushels), down slightly from the previous week but well above the same period last year. Year-to-date corn shipments stand at 3.49 million tons (137.4 million bushels) compared with 2.20 million a year ago.
Soybean inspections slowed to 484,000 tons (17.8 million bushels), a sharp decline from 822,000 last week and just under last year’s pace. Still, cumulative exports remain ahead of 2024 totals at 1.57 million tons (57.7 million bushels). Wheat inspections totaled 854,000 tons (31.4 million bushels), stronger than both last week and last year, with Pacific Northwest ports leading shipments to Asian and Middle Eastern destinations. Sorghum movement lagged at 30,600 tons (1.2 million bushels), reflecting weaker demand compared with last year.
Overall, the data suggest solid demand for U.S. corn and wheat, but highlight softer soybean loadings ahead of harvest and continued weakness in sorghum exports.
Private exporters also reported a flash sale of 320,068 metric tons of corn (12.6 million bushels) to Mexico for delivery in the 2025/26 marketing year, USDA’s Foreign Agricultural Service announced Monday.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers should watch for soybean export rebounds with harvest, while corn and wheat shipments remain strong and sorghum demand struggles.
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Rising Imports And Costs Pressure U.S. Produce Growers
NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. fruit and vegetable growers are facing intensifying pressure from both imports and rising costs, according to University of Georgia economists. USDA projects 2025 cash receipts for all crops at $236.6 billion, down 2.5% from last year, with vegetable revenues expected to decline even as consumer demand remains strong. Imports continue to surge, reaching $49.8 billion in 2024—about one-quarter of all agricultural imports—compared to just $15.9 billion in exports. Mexico dominates U.S. vegetable imports, while Canada, Peru, and Chile are key fruit suppliers, often shipping into U.S. harvest windows and depressing domestic prices.
At the same time, growers face soaring costs. USDA estimates farm production expenses will reach $467 billion in 2025, up 2.6% from last year and more than 36% higher than in 2018. Fruits and vegetables are labor-intensive, and reliance on the H-2A guest worker program means higher wages, fees, and compliance burdens. In 2024, 44% of growers cited H-2A costs as their top concern, while 54% reported labor shortages as their primary concern.
Farm-Level Takeaway: U.S. produce growers face a structural disadvantage—cheaper imports driving down prices while rising labor costs squeeze margins. Without new policies or technology, profitability remains uncertain.
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Tight Herd, Beef-on-Dairy Growth Shape Price Outlook
NASHVILLE, TN – U.S. cattle supplies remain historically tight, keeping a firm tone under beef prices into 2026. USDA estimates the total herd at about 86.7 million head on Jan. 1, 2025—near 70-year lows—while the July 1 inventory showed only a modest uptick in beef replacement heifers, signaling a slow rebuild at best. Imports are backfilling the gap: ERS’s mid-year outlook pegged 2025 beef imports near 5.19 billion pounds, with only a slight pullback expected in 2026 as global exportable supplies tighten.
On the fed-cattle side, packers and feeders continue to lean on beef-on-dairy crosses. Industry analysts estimate that these calves could account for roughly a mid-teens share of the fed market (about 3.2 million head in 2024), with a notable presence in Southern High Plains yards—supporting uniform carcass quality and throughput even as native calf supplies remain light. With constrained beef-cow numbers and a gradual rebuild, price breaks are more likely to come from demand or imports than from a surge in domestic cattle.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Herd rebuilding looks slow, keeping cattle prices supported; beef-on-dairy crosses help fill feedlots, while imports temper—but don’t erase—tightness.
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Turkey Supplies Tighten As Holidays Approach
AUBURN, AL – Turkey supplies for the 2025 holiday season are projected to be lower, setting the stage for firmer prices heading into Thanksgiving. Poultry economists note that poult placements have lagged throughout most of the year, with both toms and hens down compared to 2024. While July egg sets ticked up 1% year-over-year, overall placements remain light, meaning fewer fresh birds will be available this fall. Frozen stocks are also below historical averages, suggesting tight supplies for the November holiday.
Wholesale fresh turkey prices are already trending higher. Small lot prices moved into the $1.55 per pound range in early September, up from last year’s levels, while larger buyers have held near $1.40 per pound under contracted terms. Analysts expect further increases as holiday demand builds and cold storage inventories are drawn down.
Adding to supply pressure is Highly Pathogenic Avian Influenza (HPAI). USDA reports more than 195,000 turkeys lost to HPAI outbreaks since August, with wildfowl migration raising risks for further spread this fall. Following the loss of over 18 million birds to HPAI in recent years, turkey production has remained below average, and recovery has been slow.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Farmers may benefit from higher turkey prices this holiday season, but risks from HPAI and limited poult placements could further strain the supply. Consumers should expect tighter availability and stronger prices for fresh and frozen birds at Thanksgiving.
