All Ag, All Day is the nation's only full-time farm radio station with studios in Floydada and Nashville, TN (www.AllAgNews.com)
Ethanol Output Rises While Stocks Steady, Exports Surge
LUBBOCK, TX – U.S. ethanol production jumped to 1.07 million barrels per day—about 45 million gallons daily—running ahead of last year and the three-year average, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration. Even so, the four-week average eased a touch, a reminder that plants are still pacing margins.
Inventories held essentially flat at 22.7 million barrels, with most regions drawing down while the West Coast built supplies to a 25-week high. Gasoline supplied—a proxy for driver demand—rebounded week over week, supporting blending, but remains below last year. Refiners and blenders pulled in slightly less ethanol on the week, yet exports were the standout, surging to an estimated 138,000 barrels per day and helping move product with no imports reported in more than a year. Net result: more output, steady stocks, and stronger exports point to firmer plant demand into fall. Stronger plant runs are good news for corn demand and local basis.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect a steady corn grind and selective basis strength where exports and local blending stay active.
**********
StoneX Flags Fertilizer Crosswinds As Decisions Loom Ahead
NASHVILLE, TN – Fertilizer choices for fall and spring hinge on China’s export stance, U.S.–Russia sanctions risk, and tight global ammonia supplies—factors that could swing budgets within weeks.
Josh Linville of StoneX says China plans to halt urea exports after Oct. 15; holding the cutoff would firm prices, while an extension would push more tons into the market and soften values. India just issued what it calls 2025’s final urea tender (~2 MMT; offers next week; ship by Dec. 10), likely drawing aggressive offers—especially if China stays open.
Urea-to-grain economics have improved but remain high. The biggest flashpoint is UAN: about half of U.S. UAN imports come from Russia, so any U.S. block would tighten an already thin system (low starting inventories, plant maintenance, Europe ~75% of normal, Trinidad gas issues), keeping UAN’s premium over other N. NH3 demand looks strong as the cheapest N per pound amid global tightness. Phosphates stay elevated with tariff headwinds and potential China curbs; potash is flat with uncertain fall pull.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Lock NH3 early, track China’s Oct. 15 call and any U.S. Russia-UAN action, stay nimble on urea, and budget cautiously for high-priced phosphate.
**********
Big Shipping Alliances Grow, Modest Impact On Exports
NASHVILLE, TN – A new USDA Agricultural Marketing Service study finds that big shipping alliances—groups of ocean carriers that share ships and schedules—now move over 70% of America’s container exports. Even as export volumes have leveled off since peaking in 2015, the report says the real-world effects on exporters are small: a few fewer ship visits on some routes, slightly tighter space, and roughly $20 more per container on average.
For farm shippers—hay, specialty grains, meats, dairy powders, almonds—the impact isn’t worse than for other goods. The study notes import routes may be a different story because they move larger volumes and higher-value products, so they could feel alliance power more sharply.
Farm-Level Takeaway: Expect business-as-usual for most container exports. Keep bookings flexible, budget for modest rate bumps, diversify ports and carriers where possible, and watch import congestion for ripple effects.
**********
Grocery Stress Fuels Surge In Social ‘Struggle Meals’
NASHVILLE, TN – Households pinching pennies are turning to ultra-cheap, few-ingredient “struggle meals” as grocery costs remain a top pain point. An August AP-NORC poll found a majority of adults now call groceries a major source of stress and many have even used buy-now-pay-later for essentials. Searches for “struggle meal” hit a record high in September, and #strugglemeals posts are climbing on Instagram and TikTok, reflecting a wave of budget-cooking content.
Online, the genre runs from rice-and-egg bowls and ramen hacks to skillet “helpers.” Tastemade’s long-running Struggle Meals series with Frankie Celenza anchors the space on YouTube, while creators like Dollar Tree Dinners have gone viral with ultra-low-budget holiday menus. Nutrition voices caution many recipes skew low in protein and fiber and high in sodium, urging simple add-ins (beans, eggs, frozen veg) to balance plates rather than abandon thrifty cooking altogether.
Farm-Level Takeaway: The trend points to steady demand for low-cost staples—rice, pasta, tortillas, eggs, canned goods—and value lines, creating opportunities for producers and retailers positioned on price.
